Chinese Imports and Industrialization in Africa: Evidence from Ethiopia

Working Paper
Published on 25 January 2023
Authors
Marina Ngoma

Abstract

The rise of China in the global economy has been linked with negative impacts on employment across many high and middle-income countries. However, evidence for African countries is limited. This paper investigates the causal relationship between Chinese imports and manufacturing employment in Ethiopia. Imports may harm domestic firms through a revenue effect (lower market shares) or benefit them, either indirectly if competition spurs innovation or directly through access to better quality or cheaper inputs. I find that a 1 unit increase in import penetration leads to a 15.2 percent increase in industry employment. I disentangle the inputs effect from the other two effects by decomposing total Chinese imports by their end-use category using input-output tables and find evidence that imported intermediate inputs are driving the employment gains. I find evidence consistent with the idea that employment gains are a result of productivity gains and increases in capacity utilization. These employment gains appear to disproportionately benefit large firms and labor-intensive industries.

Authors

Marina Ngoma

Tufts University